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NHC : HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31

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WTNT22 KNHC 020255
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 73.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT……. 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT…….120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT…….200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 73.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT…200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT…200NE 200SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 73.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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