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NHC : HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28

National Hurricane Center Website

000
WTNT22 KNHC 010840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND
VIRGINIA…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…….120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT…….175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 300SE 210SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 71.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT…175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT…120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 140SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT…100NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT…175NE 200SE 175SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 71.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

National Hurricane Center Website

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